Michael J. Rovine, Ph.D.

1982, Pennsylvania State University

Professor of Human Development

119-C Henderson
(814) 865-7094
mr7@psu.edu

Methodology Consulting Center

Research

My current interests are in areas related to statistical modeling. In the area of structural equations modeling, I am looking at ways to estimate a number of different multilevel models as SEM. One model of particular interest is a multilevel autoregressive model that could have important implications for those collecting relatively intensive time series data. I am also working on a general model, the nonstationary autoregressive moving average model that can be used to describe essentially any latent variable model. This general model has important implications for model comparison and testing.

Another interest of mine relates to the history of statistics, in particular the contributions of the philosopher C.S. Peirce to the development of statistical methodology. My interest in this area was sparked by my attempts to develop variations of the correlation coefficient that could be used to describe effect sizes in uncontrolled studies. Looking to see whether similar work had been done in the past, I discovered an interesting history of correlation and regression that predated the better known work of Pearson and Galton.

My main focus, however, is on a more idiographic approach to the description of developmental phenomena. Along with Erik Loken (HDFS), David Nembhard (Engineering), Cynthia Stifter (HDFS) and Peter Molenaar (HDFS), I am beginning an NSF funded study to develop and apply time series models to developmental data. We will be working with a number of different models including multilevel ARMA, state space, and control models. A brief abstract for the study follows.

Multilevel ARMA and Dynamic Models for the Longitudinal Study of Human Interactions. Michael J. Rovine (PI), Penn State University. Time series methods are used to model phenomena as varied as patterns in the weather, fluctuations in the stock market, changes in populations, quality of industrial products, patterns of sleep, physiological characteristics such as heart rate, blood pressure, and brain wave activity, and the flight of the space shuttle. The use of these methods, which are so common in the areas of engineering and econometrics and which seem so naturally suited for application in the study of human interactions have been surprisingly overlooked in the developmental sciences. In this proposal we will adapt, extend, and, where necessary, develop new methods that will be particularly well-suited to developmental research and the study of human interactions. We intend to implement these models in ways that will make them easily accessible to developmental researchers studying human interaction. We will demonstrate the utility of these methods by analyzing data from the Infant and Child Temperament Study related to infant's self regulation of emotion, and parent-infant interaction related to the parents ability to soothe a distressed child.

Education

Research and Professional Experience

Selected Publications